AI-chip opportunities traced to research

🎯 Opportunity cards

Tap a card to open thesis, catalysts, risks and plan. Readiness = average of linked research items. Our judgment · Not financial advice.

STM

STMicroelectronics · Europe

⏳ Build position 💪 High conviction ⏳ 2026-2027

1Paper
2Prototype
3Factories & orders
4Revenue

💡 Thesis

🎯 PIC100 photonics in volume
🔗 Silicon photonics reaches high-volume factories

📅 Catalysts

✅ PIC100 photonics in volume
No dated catalyst within 90 days in our calendar

⚠️ Risks

❌ Auto/industrial weakness
❌ Auto/industrial weakness
❌ Nvidia networking SVP: 'If you can use copper, use copper' — optics only where distance forces it.

✅ Plan

⏳ Build position · conviction High (score 66)
Our judgment · Not financial advice · No return promises

🗓 Timeline

Step 1Capacity grows; more customers
Step 2Over 4x capacity planned by 2027 (company plan)
Step 3Next version (TSV) for co-packaged optics

Timeline steps are our judgment unless marked as company plan.

NVDA

Nvidia · USA

⏳ Build position 💪 Medium conviction ⏳ Next results ~late Nov 2026 (est.)

1Paper
2Prototype
3Factories & orders
4Revenue

💡 Thesis

🎯 Vera Rubin ramp in full production
🔗 Silicon photonics reaches high-volume factories
🔗 A light switch sending 200 billion bits per second per colour

📅 Catalysts

✅ Vera Rubin ramp in full production
No dated catalyst within 90 days in our calendar

⚠️ Risks

❌ Customer capex slowdown; China rules
❌ Customer capex slowdown; China rules
❌ Nvidia networking SVP: 'If you can use copper, use copper' — optics only where distance forces it.

✅ Plan

⏳ Build position · conviction Medium (score 60)
Our judgment · Not financial advice · No return promises

🗓 Timeline

Step 1Capacity grows; more customers
Step 2Over 4x capacity planned by 2027 (company plan)
Step 3Next version (TSV) for co-packaged optics

Timeline steps are our judgment unless marked as company plan.

COHR

Coherent · USA

⏳ Build position 💪 Medium conviction ⏳ 2026-2029

1Paper
2Prototype
3Factories & orders
4Revenue

💡 Thesis

🎯 Lasers/optics for photonic links & CPO
🔗 A light-based 'highway' between AI chip and memory
🔗 A light switch sending 200 billion bits per second per colour
🔗 Silicon photonics reaches high-volume factories

📅 Catalysts

✅ Lasers/optics for photonic links & CPO
No dated catalyst within 90 days in our calendar

⚠️ Risks

❌ Optics price wars
❌ Optics price wars
❌ Nvidia networking SVP: 'If you can use copper, use copper' — optics only where distance forces it.

✅ Plan

⏳ Build position · conviction Medium (score 64)
Our judgment · Not financial advice · No return promises

🗓 Timeline

Step 1Prototype shown to partners
Step 2Early customer trials
Step 3Possibly inside some AI servers

Timeline steps are our judgment unless marked as company plan.

BESI.AS

Besi · Europe

👀 Watch 💪 High conviction ⏳ 2026-2028

1Paper
2Prototype
3Factories & orders
4Revenue

💡 Thesis

🎯 Hybrid bonding tied to Applied Materials partnership
🔗 Gluing chips together copper-to-copper (hybrid bonding)

📅 Catalysts

✅ Hybrid bonding tied to Applied Materials partnership
No dated catalyst within 90 days in our calendar

⚠️ Risks

❌ Adoption timing slips
❌ Adoption timing slips
❌ SK hynix: hybrid bonding not ready for HBM4E.

✅ Plan

👀 Watch · conviction High (score 88)
Our judgment · Not financial advice · No return promises

🗓 Timeline

Step 1More orders for bonding machines
Step 2Used in some memory and logic stacks
Step 3Standard for top AI chips

Timeline steps are our judgment unless marked as company plan.

6857.T

Advantest · Japan

👀 Watch 💪 Medium conviction ⏳ Now-2027

1Paper
2Prototype
3Factories & orders
4Revenue

💡 Thesis

🎯 AI chip testing demand
🔗 Gluing chips together copper-to-copper (hybrid bonding)

📅 Catalysts

✅ AI chip testing demand
No dated catalyst within 90 days in our calendar

⚠️ Risks

❌ Cyclical; valuation
❌ Cyclical; valuation
❌ SK hynix: hybrid bonding not ready for HBM4E.

✅ Plan

👀 Watch · conviction Medium (score 64)
Our judgment · Not financial advice · No return promises

🗓 Timeline

Step 1More orders for bonding machines
Step 2Used in some memory and logic stacks
Step 3Standard for top AI chips

Timeline steps are our judgment unless marked as company plan.

CGPOWER.NS

CG Power · India

👀 Watch 💪 Watch conviction ⏳ 2026-2027

1Paper
2Prototype
3Factories & orders
4Revenue

💡 Thesis

🎯 Chip packaging JV with Renesas & Stars
🔗 Gluing chips together copper-to-copper (hybrid bonding)

📅 Catalysts

✅ Chip packaging JV with Renesas & Stars
No dated catalyst within 90 days in our calendar

⚠️ Risks

❌ Execution; ramp delays
❌ Execution; ramp delays
❌ SK hynix: hybrid bonding not ready for HBM4E.

✅ Plan

👀 Watch · conviction Watch (score 52)
Our judgment · Not financial advice · No return promises

🗓 Timeline

Step 1More orders for bonding machines
Step 2Used in some memory and logic stacks
Step 3Standard for top AI chips

Timeline steps are our judgment unless marked as company plan.

ADEA

Adeia · USA

👀 Watch 💪 Medium conviction ⏳ 2026-2028

1Paper
2Prototype
3Factories & orders
4Revenue

💡 Thesis

🎯 Licenses hybrid-bonding IP
🔗 Gluing chips together copper-to-copper (hybrid bonding)

📅 Catalysts

✅ Licenses hybrid-bonding IP
No dated catalyst within 90 days in our calendar

⚠️ Risks

❌ Litigation outcomes
❌ Litigation outcomes
❌ SK hynix: hybrid bonding not ready for HBM4E.

✅ Plan

👀 Watch · conviction Medium (score 64)
Our judgment · Not financial advice · No return promises

🗓 Timeline

Step 1More orders for bonding machines
Step 2Used in some memory and logic stacks
Step 3Standard for top AI chips

Timeline steps are our judgment unless marked as company plan.

000660.KS

SK hynix · Korea

👀 Watch 💪 High conviction ⏳ Now-2027

1Paper
2Prototype
3Factories & orders
4Revenue

💡 Thesis

🎯 Q3 (Oct 28): revenue ₩104.6T (+328% YoY), DRAM/HBM booked through 2029, long-term deals with 14 customers cover >50% of 2027-28 output
🔗 Gluing chips together copper-to-copper (hybrid bonding)

📅 Catalysts

✅ Q3 (Oct 28): revenue ₩104.6T (+328% YoY), DRAM/HBM booked through 2029, long-term deals with 14 customers cover >50% of 2027-28 output
No dated catalyst within 90 days in our calendar

⚠️ Risks

❌ Memory price cycle reversal
❌ Memory price cycle reversal
❌ SK hynix: hybrid bonding not ready for HBM4E.

✅ Plan

👀 Watch · conviction High (score 80)
Our judgment · Not financial advice · No return promises

🗓 Timeline

Step 1More orders for bonding machines
Step 2Used in some memory and logic stacks
Step 3Standard for top AI chips

Timeline steps are our judgment unless marked as company plan.

Meta Platforms · USA

👀 Watch 💪 High conviction ⏳ Now-2027

1Research
2Preview
3Shipping
4Widely adopted

💡 Thesis

🎯 Muse Wonder frontier model and Muse Spark Open
🔗 Meta's superintelligence lab ships its first frontier model, Muse Wonder
🔗 Meta releases Muse Spark Open, which it calls the most capable US open-weight mo

📅 Catalysts

✅ Muse Wonder frontier model and Muse Spark Open
No dated catalyst within 90 days in our calendar

⚠️ Risks

❌ AI spending is huge; returns unproven
❌ AI is a small direct revenue line vs ads (our judgment)

✅ Plan

👀 Watch · conviction High (score 71)
Our judgment · Not financial advice · No return promises

🗓 Timeline

1 yrRapid model updates
3 yrAgent products built on it
5 yrCompetitive position vs other labs unclear

Timeline steps are our judgment unless marked as company plan.

IQMX

IQM Quantum Computers · Finland

👀 Watch 💪 High conviction ⏳ 2027+

1Lab physics
2Hardware demo
3Cloud access / customers
4Commercial advantage

💡 Thesis

🎯 Full 54-qubit entanglement on cloud Emerald
🔗 IQM entangles all 54 qubits on its cloud Emerald chip at once

📅 Catalysts

✅ Full 54-qubit entanglement on cloud Emerald
No dated catalyst within 90 days in our calendar

⚠️ Risks

❌ Fidelity only just above threshold
❌ Small company in a crowded field (our judgment)

✅ Plan

👀 Watch · conviction High (score 75)
Our judgment · Not financial advice · No return promises

🗓 Timeline

1 yrLarger IQM chips
3 yrCustomer algorithms using full chips
5 yrCompetitive cloud offering if error rates fall

Timeline steps are our judgment unless marked as company plan.

🔒 Private

Altera · USA

👀 Watch 💪 Watch conviction ⏳ 2027

1Paper
2Prototype
3Factories & orders
4Revenue

💡 Thesis

🎯 Agilex 2X FPGA launch (Oct 28)
🔗 Altera launches Agilex 2X FPGAs with 1.8× better performance per watt for AI inf

📅 Catalysts

✅ Agilex 2X FPGA launch (Oct 28)
No dated catalyst within 90 days in our calendar

⚠️ Risks

❌ Not listed; FPGAs lose to custom chips for pure AI maths
❌ Performance figure is vendor-claimed

✅ Plan

👀 Watch · conviction Watch (score 71)
Our judgment · Not financial advice · No return promises

🗓 Timeline

Step 1Early customer designs.
Step 2In network gear and AI servers.
Step 3Replaced by the next generation.

Timeline steps are our judgment unless marked as company plan.

CEVA

Ceva · USA

👀 Watch 💪 Medium conviction ⏳ 2027-2029 (royalties lag)

1Paper
2Prototype
3Factories & orders
4Revenue

💡 Thesis

🎯 Next-gen NeuPro NPU IP (Oct 28); early access now, general availability Q2 2027
🔗 Ceva unveils next-gen NeuPro AI engines (2× throughput per mm²) and enters AI in

📅 Catalysts

✅ Next-gen NeuPro NPU IP (Oct 28); early access now, general availability Q2 2027
No dated catalyst within 90 days in our calendar

⚠️ Risks

❌ Crowded IP market; vendor-claimed gains
❌ General availability not until Q2 2027

✅ Plan

👀 Watch · conviction Medium (score 62)
Our judgment · Not financial advice · No return promises

🗓 Timeline

Step 1Early-access licensees.
Step 2First chips using it ship.
Step 3Royalties if widely adopted.

Timeline steps are our judgment unless marked as company plan.

UFO

Procure Space ETF · USA

👀 Watch 💪 Medium conviction ⏳ 2027+

1Design
2Testing
3Flight
4Operations

💡 Thesis

🎯 Basket exposure to space companies (our judgment)
🔗 SpaceX plans to catch both Starship stages on Flight 15
🔗 Rocket Lab pushes Neutron's first launch to 2027 after finding flaws in fuel-tan

📅 Catalysts

✅ Basket exposure to space companies (our judgment)
No dated catalyst within 90 days in our calendar

⚠️ Risks

❌ Many holdings are satellite/telecom, not rockets
❌ SpaceX and Blue Origin are private, so ETFs miss them (our judgment)

✅ Plan

👀 Watch · conviction Medium (score 51)
Our judgment · Not financial advice · No return promises

🗓 Timeline

1 yrCatch attempt result
3 yrFaster launch cadence
5 yrCheaper launches if reuse is routine

Timeline steps are our judgment unless marked as company plan.

QTUM

Defiance Quantum ETF · USA

👀 Watch 💪 Medium conviction ⏳ 2027+

1Lab physics
2Hardware demo
3Cloud access / customers
4Commercial advantage

💡 Thesis

🎯 Basket exposure to quantum and related computing firms (our judgment)
🔗 Google shows 'magic state cultivation' on its Willow chip, cutting errors about
🔗 Quantinuum reports 99.9995% logical fidelity on Helios, five errors per million
🔗 IQM entangles all 54 qubits on its cloud Emerald chip at once

📅 Catalysts

✅ Basket exposure to quantum and related computing firms (our judgment)
No dated catalyst within 90 days in our calendar

⚠️ Risks

❌ Holdings are mostly large tech, not pure quantum
❌ Check holdings before assuming quantum exposure

✅ Plan

👀 Watch · conviction Medium (score 50)
Our judgment · Not financial advice · No return promises

🗓 Timeline

1 yrRepeated on bigger chips
3 yrCombined with logical qubits in algorithms
5 yrPart of an error-corrected machine if scaling works

Timeline steps are our judgment unless marked as company plan.

QNT

Quantinuum · USA

👀 Watch 💪 High conviction ⏳ 2027-2029

1Lab physics
2Hardware demo
3Cloud access / customers
4Commercial advantage

💡 Thesis

🎯 99.9995% logical fidelity on Helios; Apollo targeted for 2029
🔗 Quantinuum reports 99.9995% logical fidelity on Helios, five errors per million

📅 Catalysts

✅ 99.9995% logical fidelity on Helios; Apollo targeted for 2029
No dated catalyst within 90 days in our calendar

⚠️ Risks

❌ Company-reported records; long path to profit
❌ Pure-play quantum stocks are volatile (our judgment)

✅ Plan

👀 Watch · conviction High (score 74)
Our judgment · Not financial advice · No return promises

🗓 Timeline

1 yrMore records on Helios
3 yrApollo prototypes
5 yrFault-tolerant machine if the 2029 plan holds

Timeline steps are our judgment unless marked as company plan.

4062.T

Ibiden · Japan

👀 Watch 💪 Medium conviction ⏳ 2027-2028

1Paper
2Prototype
3Factories & orders
4Revenue

💡 Thesis

🎯 Glass substrate validation with TSMC (reported)
🔗 Glass replacing plastic under AI chips (glass substrates)

📅 Catalysts

✅ Glass substrate validation with TSMC (reported)
No dated catalyst within 90 days in our calendar

⚠️ Risks

❌ Glass may arrive late
❌ Glass may arrive late
❌ Glass timelines keep slipping (Tom's Hardware).

✅ Plan

👀 Watch · conviction Medium (score 61)
Our judgment · Not financial advice · No return promises

🗓 Timeline

Step 1Pilot lines and samples
Step 2First AI products on glass, if yields are good
Step 3Common in big AI chips

Timeline steps are our judgment unless marked as company plan.

Unlisted (parent: Tata group cos)

Tata Electronics fab · India

👀 Watch 💪 Watch conviction ⏳ 2027+ (est.)

1Paper
2Prototype
3Factories & orders
4Revenue

💡 Thesis

🎯 ₹91,526 cr Gujarat fab with PSMC
🔗 Glass replacing plastic under AI chips (glass substrates)

📅 Catalysts

✅ ₹91,526 cr Gujarat fab with PSMC
No dated catalyst within 90 days in our calendar

⚠️ Risks

❌ Not directly investable
❌ Not directly investable
❌ Glass timelines keep slipping (Tom's Hardware).

✅ Plan

👀 Watch · conviction Watch (score 45)
Our judgment · Not financial advice · No return promises

🗓 Timeline

Step 1Pilot lines and samples
Step 2First AI products on glass, if yields are good
Step 3Common in big AI chips

Timeline steps are our judgment unless marked as company plan.

GLW

Corning · USA

👀 Watch 💪 Medium conviction ⏳ 2027-2029

1Paper
2Prototype
3Factories & orders
4Revenue

💡 Thesis

🎯 Glass core substrates
🔗 Glass replacing plastic under AI chips (glass substrates)

📅 Catalysts

✅ Glass core substrates
No dated catalyst within 90 days in our calendar

⚠️ Risks

❌ Glass adoption slips
❌ Glass adoption slips
❌ Glass timelines keep slipping (Tom's Hardware).

✅ Plan

👀 Watch · conviction Medium (score 53)
Our judgment · Not financial advice · No return promises

🗓 Timeline

Step 1Pilot lines and samples
Step 2First AI products on glass, if yields are good
Step 3Common in big AI chips

Timeline steps are our judgment unless marked as company plan.

TSM

TSMC · Taiwan

👀 Watch 💪 Medium conviction ⏳ Q4 2026 (Jan 2027 results)

1Paper
2Prototype
3Factories & orders
4Revenue

💡 Thesis

🎯 2nm steep ramp; Q4 guide $52.3-54.3B
🔗 Glass replacing plastic under AI chips (glass substrates)

📅 Catalysts

✅ 2nm steep ramp; Q4 guide $52.3-54.3B
No dated catalyst within 90 days in our calendar

⚠️ Risks

❌ Taiwan risk; overseas fab margin drag
❌ Taiwan risk; overseas fab margin drag
❌ Glass timelines keep slipping (Tom's Hardware).

✅ Plan

👀 Watch · conviction Medium (score 57)
Our judgment · Not financial advice · No return promises

🗓 Timeline

Step 1Pilot lines and samples
Step 2First AI products on glass, if yields are good
Step 3Common in big AI chips

Timeline steps are our judgment unless marked as company plan.

GOOGL

Alphabet · USA

👀 Watch 💪 Medium conviction ⏳ 2027+

1Lab physics
2Hardware demo
3Cloud access / customers
4Commercial advantage

💡 Thesis

🎯 Magic-state cultivation on Willow (Oct 15) and Genie 4 world model
🔗 Google shows 'magic state cultivation' on its Willow chip, cutting errors about
🔗 Google DeepMind's Genie 4 generates interactive worlds with sound and dialogue

📅 Catalysts

✅ Magic-state cultivation on Willow (Oct 15) and Genie 4 world model
No dated catalyst within 90 days in our calendar

⚠️ Risks

❌ Quantum and world models are tiny vs. its ad and cloud business
❌ Exposure is diluted by a huge core business (our judgment)

✅ Plan

👀 Watch · conviction Medium (score 50)
Our judgment · Not financial advice · No return promises

🗓 Timeline

1 yrRepeated on bigger chips
3 yrCombined with logical qubits in algorithms
5 yrPart of an error-corrected machine if scaling works

Timeline steps are our judgment unless marked as company plan.

GFS

GlobalFoundries · USA

👀 Watch 💪 Medium conviction ⏳ 2027+

1Paper
2Prototype
3Factories & orders
4Revenue

💡 Thesis

🎯 Makes PsiQuantum's silicon-photonics chips, including the new optical switch (Oct 28)
🔗 PsiQuantum shows a light-based switch that rewires AI data-centre networks in 3

📅 Catalysts

✅ Makes PsiQuantum's silicon-photonics chips, including the new optical switch (Oct 28)
No dated catalyst within 90 days in our calendar

⚠️ Risks

❌ Photonics is a small part of revenue
❌ Switch results are company-reported; only an 8×8 port count

✅ Plan

👀 Watch · conviction Medium (score 46)
Our judgment · Not financial advice · No return promises

🗓 Timeline

Step 1Samples tested by a few big cloud firms.
Step 2First switches in real AI clusters if tests go well.
Step 3Could be a standard part of AI networks, or lose to cheaper electrical switches.

Timeline steps are our judgment unless marked as company plan.

PRME

Prime Medicine · USA

👀 Watch 💪 High conviction ⏳ 2027

1Preclinical
2Early trial (Ph 1/2)
3Late trial (Ph 3)
4Approved

💡 Thesis

🎯 First in-body prime edit (Wilson's disease); data expected next year
🔗 First prime edit inside a human body: Prime Medicine treats a Wilson's disease p

📅 Catalysts

✅ First in-body prime edit (Wilson's disease); data expected next year
No dated catalyst within 90 days in our calendar

⚠️ Risks

❌ Single patient, no efficacy data yet
❌ Clinical-stage biotech can fall sharply on trial news (our judgment)

✅ Plan

👀 Watch · conviction High (score 65)
Our judgment · Not financial advice · No return promises

🗓 Timeline

1 yrFirst safety and copper data
3 yrMore patients dosed if safe
5 yrPossible approval path if efficacy holds

Timeline steps are our judgment unless marked as company plan.

RKLB

Rocket Lab · USA

👀 Watch 💪 Medium conviction ⏳ 2027

1Design
2Testing
3Flight
4Operations

💡 Thesis

🎯 Neutron debut slipped to 2027
🔗 Rocket Lab pushes Neutron's first launch to 2027 after finding flaws in fuel-tan

📅 Catalysts

✅ Neutron debut slipped to 2027
No dated catalyst within 90 days in our calendar

⚠️ Risks

❌ Further schedule slips
❌ Delay already announced; execution risk remains

✅ Plan

👀 Watch · conviction Medium (score 56)
Our judgment · Not financial advice · No return promises

🗓 Timeline

1 yrStage tests finish
3 yrFirst launch
5 yrRegular flights if debut succeeds

Timeline steps are our judgment unless marked as company plan.

KAYNES.NS

Kaynes Technology · India

👀 Watch 💪 Watch conviction ⏳ 2026-2027

1Paper
2Prototype
3Factories & orders
4Revenue

💡 Thesis

🎯 OSAT plant in commercial production (ISM)
🔗 Making noisy analog AI chips accurate (weight splitting)

📅 Catalysts

✅ OSAT plant in commercial production (ISM)
No dated catalyst within 90 days in our calendar

⚠️ Risks

❌ Small scale; high expectations priced in
❌ Small scale; high expectations priced in
❌ System-level review: specialised analog/physical accelerators can show 'little or no advantage' once conversion, control and memory access are counted.

✅ Plan

👀 Watch · conviction Watch (score 34)
Our judgment · Not financial advice · No return promises

🗓 Timeline

Step 1Follow-up papers
Step 2Shown on real Micron test silicon
Step 3Could ship inside analog-AI memory products

Timeline steps are our judgment unless marked as company plan.

TSEM

Tower Semiconductor · Israel

👀 Watch 💪 Medium conviction ⏳ 2026-2029

1Paper
2Prototype
3Factories & orders
4Revenue

💡 Thesis

🎯 Photonics foundry for startups
🔗 Computing with light instead of electricity (optical AI chip)
🔗 A light switch sending 200 billion bits per second per colour

📅 Catalysts

✅ Photonics foundry for startups
No dated catalyst within 90 days in our calendar

⚠️ Risks

❌ Customer concentration
❌ Customer concentration
❌ Nature Photonics review (2026): in the cloud, losses and light-to-electric conversions 'dominate power' and have so far prevented commercial photonic tensor cores.

✅ Plan

👀 Watch · conviction Medium (score 49)
Our judgment · Not financial advice · No return promises

🗓 Timeline

Step 1Lab demos and first test chips
Step 2Pilot units in a few data centres, if tests go well
Step 3Could be a niche accelerator for specific AI jobs

Timeline steps are our judgment unless marked as company plan.

TWST

Twist Bioscience · USA

👀 Watch 💪 Watch conviction ⏳ 2029+

1Lab proof
2Prototype system
3Pilot archives
4Commercial service

💡 Thesis

🎯 DNA synthesis maker; DNA storage would need cheap writing (our judgment)
🔗 A porous silica chip writes 11× more DNA per spot, a step to cheaper 'DNA drives
🔗 HKU's 'Gungnir' code recovers data from DNA damaged like 400-year-old archives

📅 Catalysts

✅ DNA synthesis maker; DNA storage would need cheap writing (our judgment)
No dated catalyst within 90 days in our calendar

⚠️ Risks

❌ DNA storage is not a material revenue line today (our judgment)
❌ Link to these papers is our judgment, not company news

✅ Plan

👀 Watch · conviction Watch (score 32)
Our judgment · Not financial advice · No return promises

🗓 Timeline

1 yrFollow-up with denser arrays
3 yrPrototype DNA-writing chips
5 yrCould cut DNA-write cost if paired with fab partners

Timeline steps are our judgment unless marked as company plan.

BRN.AX

BrainChip · Australia

👀 Watch 💪 Speculative conviction ⏳ 2027+

1Paper
2Prototype
3Factories & orders
4Revenue

💡 Thesis

🎯 Edge neuromorphic chips
🔗 Brain-like chip that can learn on the device (neuromorphic)

📅 Catalysts

✅ Edge neuromorphic chips
📅 2026-11-03 AMD Q3 2026 results (after US market close)

⚠️ Risks

❌ Tiny revenue; dilution
❌ Tiny revenue; dilution
❌ BrainChip, a listed neuromorphic pioneer, reported only US$1.22M revenue and a US$12.0M loss for H1 2026 — commercial demand for brain-like chips is still tiny.

✅ Plan

👀 Watch · conviction Speculative (score 55)
Our judgment · Not financial advice · No return promises

🗓 Timeline

Step 1More FPGA demos
Step 2First real chips (tape-out)
Step 3Possible use in robots and cameras

Timeline steps are our judgment unless marked as company plan.

AMD

AMD · USA

👀 Watch 💪 Watch conviction ⏳ Nov 3 2026

1Paper
2Prototype
3Factories & orders
4Revenue

💡 Thesis

🎯 Q3 results Nov 3 2026; Q3 revenue guide ~$13.0B
🔗 Brain-like chip that can learn on the device (neuromorphic)

📅 Catalysts

✅ Q3 results Nov 3 2026; Q3 revenue guide ~$13.0B
📅 2026-11-03 AMD Q3 2026 results (after US market close)

⚠️ Risks

❌ Execution vs Nvidia
❌ Execution vs Nvidia
❌ BrainChip, a listed neuromorphic pioneer, reported only US$1.22M revenue and a US$12.0M loss for H1 2026 — commercial demand for brain-like chips is still tiny.

✅ Plan

👀 Watch · conviction Watch (score 39)
Our judgment · Not financial advice · No return promises

🗓 Timeline

Step 1More FPGA demos
Step 2First real chips (tape-out)
Step 3Possible use in robots and cameras

Timeline steps are our judgment unless marked as company plan.

Micron · USA/India

👀 Watch 💪 Medium conviction ⏳ 2026-2029

1Paper
2Prototype
3Factories & orders
4Revenue

💡 Thesis

🎯 Analog in-memory & HBM; Gujarat plant
🔗 Making noisy analog AI chips accurate (weight splitting)
🔗 Storing many values in one memory spot (superposed analog memory)

📅 Catalysts

✅ Analog in-memory & HBM; Gujarat plant
No dated catalyst within 90 days in our calendar

⚠️ Risks

❌ Memory cycle
❌ Memory cycle
❌ System-level review: specialised analog/physical accelerators can show 'little or no advantage' once conversion, control and memory access are counted.

✅ Plan

👀 Watch · conviction Medium (score 51)
Our judgment · Not financial advice · No return promises

🗓 Timeline

Step 1Follow-up papers
Step 2Shown on real Micron test silicon
Step 3Could ship inside analog-AI memory products

Timeline steps are our judgment unless marked as company plan.

AIXA

Aixtron · Europe

👀 Watch 💪 Watch conviction ⏳ 2029+

1Paper
2Prototype
3Factories & orders
4Revenue

💡 Thesis

🎯 Tools for 2D-material transistors
🔗 Stacking atom-thin transistors on top of each other (2D CFETs)

📅 Catalysts

✅ Tools for 2D-material transistors
No dated catalyst within 90 days in our calendar

⚠️ Risks

❌ Very long timeline
❌ Very long timeline
❌ Linked research is 6-10 years from market (our formula)

✅ Plan

👀 Watch · conviction Watch (score 26)
Our judgment · Not financial advice · No return promises

🗓 Timeline

Step 1More lab tests on contacts
Step 2Research pilot lines
Step 3Still mostly research; mass use likely in the 2030s

Timeline steps are our judgment unless marked as company plan.

📋 Full table view (filters, bull vs bear, scores)

⏱ 14 min read

🎯 Opportunities, earliest first

Every row links back to the research that could drive it. Earlier stage = more upside, more risk.

Stage:

Region:

Conviction:

No stage moves since 2026-10-29.

Added:

Stage	Company (date added)	Region	Ticker	Catalyst	Timeline	Risk	Conviction	Driven by research
Stage 2 · Prototype S2 (10-30)	Alphabet Added 2026-10-30 🆕	USA	GOOGL	Magic-state cultivation on Willow (Oct 15) and Genie 4 world model	2027+	Quantum and world models are tiny vs. its ad and cloud business 🐂 vs 🐻 + score 🐂 Magic-state cultivation on Willow (Oct 15) and Genie 4 world model. Exposure is diluted by a huge core business (our judgment) (judgment) Conviction score 50 = 0.4×linked readiness 46 + 0.4×20×exposure 2/5 + 0.2×20×execution 4/5 → Medium. Our judgment.	Medium	#4 Google shows 'magic state cultivation'… #14 Google DeepMind's Genie 4 generates in…
Stage 2 · Preview S2 (10-30)	Quantinuum Added 2026-10-30 🆕	USA	QNT	99.9995% logical fidelity on Helios; Apollo targeted for 2029	2027-2029	Company-reported records; long path to profit 🐂 vs 🐻 + score 🐂 99.9995% logical fidelity on Helios; Apollo targeted for 2029. Pure-play quantum stocks are volatile (our judgment) (judgment) Conviction score 74 = 0.4×linked readiness 54 + 0.4×20×exposure 5/5 + 0.2×20×execution 3/5 → High. Our judgment.	High	#5 Quantinuum reports 99.9995% logical fi…
Stage 2 · Hardware demo S2 (10-30)	IQM Quantum Computers Added 2026-10-30 🆕	Finland	IQMX	Full 54-qubit entanglement on cloud Emerald	2027+	Fidelity only just above threshold 🐂 vs 🐻 + score 🐂 Full 54-qubit entanglement on cloud Emerald. Small company in a crowded field (our judgment) (judgment) Conviction score 75 = 0.4×linked readiness 67 + 0.4×20×exposure 5/5 + 0.2×20×execution 2/5 → High. Our judgment.	High	#6 IQM entangles all 54 qubits on its clo…
Stage 2 · Hardware demo S2 (10-30)	Defiance Quantum ETF Added 2026-10-30 🆕	USA	QTUM	Basket exposure to quantum and related computing firms (our judgment)	2027+	Holdings are mostly large tech, not pure quantum 🐂 vs 🐻 + score 🐂 Basket exposure to quantum and related computing firms (our judgment). Check holdings before assuming quantum exposure (judgment) Conviction score 50 = 0.4×linked readiness 56 + 0.4×20×exposure 2/5 + 0.2×20×execution 3/5 → Medium. Our judgment.	Medium	#4 Google shows 'magic state cultivation'… #5 Quantinuum reports 99.9995% logical fi… #6 IQM entangles all 54 qubits on its clo…
Stage 2 · Hardware demo S2 (10-30)	Prime Medicine Added 2026-10-30 🆕	USA	PRME	First in-body prime edit (Wilson's disease); data expected next year	2027	Single patient, no efficacy data yet 🐂 vs 🐻 + score 🐂 First in-body prime edit (Wilson's disease); data expected next year. Clinical-stage biotech can fall sharply on trial news (our judgment) (judgment) Conviction score 65 = 0.4×linked readiness 43 + 0.4×20×exposure 5/5 + 0.2×20×execution 2/5 → High. Our judgment.	High	#7 First prime edit inside a human body: …
Stage 2 · Early trial (Ph 1/2) S2 (10-30)	Meta Platforms Added 2026-10-30 🆕	USA	META	Muse Wonder frontier model and Muse Spark Open	Now-2027	AI spending is huge; returns unproven 🐂 vs 🐻 + score 🐂 Muse Wonder frontier model and Muse Spark Open. AI is a small direct revenue line vs ads (our judgment) (judgment) Conviction score 71 = 0.4×linked readiness 78 + 0.4×20×exposure 3/5 + 0.2×20×execution 4/5 → High. Our judgment.	High	#13 Meta's superintelligence lab ships its… #15 Meta releases Muse Spark Open, which i…
Stage 2 · Preview S2 (10-30)	Rocket Lab Added 2026-10-30 🆕	USA	RKLB	Neutron debut slipped to 2027	2027	Further schedule slips 🐂 vs 🐻 + score 🐂 Neutron debut slipped to 2027. Delay already announced; execution risk remains (judgment) Conviction score 56 = 0.4×linked readiness 41 + 0.4×20×exposure 4/5 + 0.2×20×execution 2/5 → Medium. Our judgment.	Medium	#20 Rocket Lab pushes Neutron's first laun…
Stage 2 · Testing S2 (10-30)	Procure Space ETF Added 2026-10-30 🆕	USA	UFO	Basket exposure to space companies (our judgment)	2027+	Many holdings are satellite/telecom, not rockets 🐂 vs 🐻 + score 🐂 Basket exposure to space companies (our judgment). SpaceX and Blue Origin are private, so ETFs miss them (our judgment) (judgment) Conviction score 51 = 0.4×linked readiness 58 + 0.4×20×exposure 2/5 + 0.2×20×execution 3/5 → Medium. Our judgment.	Medium	#19 SpaceX plans to catch both Starship st… #20 Rocket Lab pushes Neutron's first laun…
Stage 2 · Testing S2 (10-30)	Twist Bioscience Added 2026-10-30 🆕	USA	TWST	DNA synthesis maker; DNA storage would need cheap writing (our judgment)	2029+	DNA storage is not a material revenue line today (our judgment) 🐂 vs 🐻 + score 🐂 DNA synthesis maker; DNA storage would need cheap writing (our judgment). Link to these papers is our judgment, not company news (judgment) Conviction score 32 = 0.4×linked readiness 31 + 0.4×20×exposure 1/5 + 0.2×20×execution 3/5 → Watch. Our judgment.	Watch	#3 A porous silica chip writes 11× more D… #1 HKU's 'Gungnir' code recovers data fro…
Stage 1 · Lab proof S1 (10-28) → S1 (10-29) → S1 (10-30)	Aixtron Added 2026-10-28	Europe	AIXA	Tools for 2D-material transistors	2029+	Very long timeline 🐂 vs 🐻 + score 🐂 Tools for 2D-material transistors. Very long timeline (judgment) Linked research is 6-10 years from market (our formula) (judgment) Conviction score 26 = 0.4×linked readiness 16 + 0.4×20×exposure 1/5 + 0.2×20×execution 3/5 → Watch. Our judgment.	Watch	#32 Stacking atom-thin transistors on top …
Stage 1 · Paper S1 (10-28) → S1 (10-29) → S1 (10-30)	Micron Added 2026-10-28	USA/India	MU	Analog in-memory & HBM; Gujarat plant	2026-2029	Memory cycle 🐂 vs 🐻 + score 🐂 Analog in-memory & HBM; Gujarat plant. Memory cycle (judgment) System-level review: specialised analog/physical accelerators can show 'little or no advantage' once conversion, control and memory access are counted. source Conviction score 51 = 0.4×linked readiness 27 + 0.4×20×exposure 3/5 + 0.2×20×execution 4/5 → Medium. Our judgment.	Medium	#30 Making noisy analog AI chips accurate … #29 Storing many values in one memory spot…
Stage 2 · Prototype S2 (10-28) → S2 (10-29) → S2 (10-30)	Ibiden Added 2026-10-28 ^{[source 14]}	Japan	4062.T	Glass substrate validation with TSMC (reported)	2027-2028	Glass may arrive late 🐂 vs 🐻 + score 🐂 Glass substrate validation with TSMC (reported). Glass may arrive late (judgment) Glass timelines keep slipping (Tom's Hardware). source Conviction score 61 = 0.4×linked readiness 52 + 0.4×20×exposure 3/5 + 0.2×20×execution 4/5 → Medium. Our judgment.	Medium	#34 Glass replacing plastic under AI chips…
Stage 2 · Prototype S2 (10-28) → S2 (10-29) → S2 (10-30)	Tata Electronics fab Added 2026-10-28 ^{[source 8]}	India	Unlisted (parent: Tata group cos)	₹91,526 cr Gujarat fab with PSMC	2027+ (est.)	Not directly investable 🐂 vs 🐻 + score 🐂 ₹91,526 cr Gujarat fab with PSMC. Not directly investable (judgment) Glass timelines keep slipping (Tom's Hardware). source Conviction score 45 = 0.4×linked readiness 52 + 0.4×20×exposure 2/5 + 0.2×20×execution 2/5 → Watch. Not directly investable → Watch. Our judgment.	Watch	#34 Glass replacing plastic under AI chips…
Stage 2 · Prototype S2 (10-28) → S2 (10-29) → S2 (10-30)	Coherent Added 2026-10-28	USA	COHR	Lasers/optics for photonic links & CPO	2026-2029	Optics price wars 🐂 vs 🐻 + score 🐂 Lasers/optics for photonic links & CPO. Optics price wars (judgment) Nvidia networking SVP: 'If you can use copper, use copper' — optics only where distance forces it. source Conviction score 64 = 0.4×linked readiness 51 + 0.4×20×exposure 4/5 + 0.2×20×execution 3/5 → Medium. Our judgment.	Medium	#28 A light-based 'highway' between AI chi… #31 A light switch sending 200 billion bit… #38 Silicon photonics reaches high-volume …
Stage 2 · Prototype S2 (10-28) → S2 (10-29) → S2 (10-30)	Tower Semiconductor Added 2026-10-28	Israel	TSEM	Photonics foundry for startups	2026-2029	Customer concentration 🐂 vs 🐻 + score 🐂 Photonics foundry for startups. Customer concentration (judgment) Nature Photonics review (2026): in the cloud, losses and light-to-electric conversions 'dominate power' and have so far prevented commercial photonic tensor cores. source Nvidia networking SVP: 'If you can use copper, use copper' — optics only where distance forces it. source Conviction score 49 = 0.4×linked readiness 34 + 0.4×20×exposure 3/5 + 0.2×20×execution 3/5 → Medium. Our judgment.	Medium	#27 Computing with light instead of electr… #31 A light switch sending 200 billion bit…
Stage 2 · Prototype S2 (10-28) → S2 (10-29) → S2 (10-30)	Corning Added 2026-10-28	USA	GLW	Glass core substrates	2027-2029	Glass adoption slips 🐂 vs 🐻 + score 🐂 Glass core substrates. Glass adoption slips (judgment) Glass timelines keep slipping (Tom's Hardware). source Conviction score 53 = 0.4×linked readiness 52 + 0.4×20×exposure 2/5 + 0.2×20×execution 4/5 → Medium. Our judgment.	Medium	#34 Glass replacing plastic under AI chips…
Stage 2 · Prototype S2 (10-28) → S2 (10-29) → S2 (10-30)	BrainChip Added 2026-10-28	Australia	BRN.AX	Edge neuromorphic chips	2027+	Tiny revenue; dilution 🐂 vs 🐻 + score 🐂 Edge neuromorphic chips. Tiny revenue; dilution (judgment) BrainChip, a listed neuromorphic pioneer, reported only US$1.22M revenue and a US$12.0M loss for H1 2026 — commercial demand for brain-like chips is still tiny. source Conviction score 55 = 0.4×linked readiness 28 + 0.4×20×exposure 5/5 + 0.2×20×execution 1/5 → Speculative. Our judgment.	Speculative	#35 Brain-like chip that can learn on the …
Stage 2 · Prototype S2 (10-29) → S2 (10-30)	Ceva Added 2026-10-29	USA	CEVA	Next-gen NeuPro NPU IP (Oct 28); early access now, general availability Q2 2027	2027-2029 (royalties lag)	Crowded IP market; vendor-claimed gains 🐂 vs 🐻 + score 🐂 Next-gen NeuPro NPU IP (Oct 28); early access now, general availability Q2 2027. General availability not until Q2 2027 source Conviction score 62 = 0.4×linked readiness 66 + 0.4×20×exposure 3/5 + 0.2×20×execution 3/5 → Medium. Our judgment.	Medium	#26 Ceva unveils next-gen NeuPro AI engine…
Stage 2 · Prototype S2 (10-29) → S2 (10-30)	GlobalFoundries Added 2026-10-29	USA	GFS	Makes PsiQuantum's silicon-photonics chips, including the new optical switch (Oct 28)	2027+	Photonics is a small part of revenue 🐂 vs 🐻 + score 🐂 Makes PsiQuantum's silicon-photonics chips, including the new optical switch (Oct 28). Switch results are company-reported; only an 8×8 port count source Conviction score 46 = 0.4×linked readiness 46 + 0.4×20×exposure 2/5 + 0.2×20×execution 3/5 → Medium. Our judgment.	Medium	#22 PsiQuantum shows a light-based switch …
Stage 2 · Prototype S2 (10-29) → S2 (10-30)	Altera Added 2026-10-29	USA	Private (Silver Lake majority; Intel minority)	Agilex 2X FPGA launch (Oct 28)	2027	Not listed; FPGAs lose to custom chips for pure AI maths 🐂 vs 🐻 + score 🐂 Agilex 2X FPGA launch (Oct 28). Performance figure is vendor-claimed source Conviction score 71 = 0.4×linked readiness 67 + 0.4×20×exposure 4/5 + 0.2×20×execution 3/5 → Watch. Not directly investable → Watch. Our judgment.	Watch	#25 Altera launches Agilex 2X FPGAs with 1…
Stage 3 · Factories & orders S3 (10-28) → S3 (10-29) → S3 (10-30)	Besi Added 2026-10-28 ^{[source 14]}	Europe	BESI.AS	Hybrid bonding tied to Applied Materials partnership	2026-2028	Adoption timing slips 🐂 vs 🐻 + score 🐂 Hybrid bonding tied to Applied Materials partnership. Adoption timing slips (judgment) SK hynix: hybrid bonding not ready for HBM4E. source Conviction score 88 = 0.4×linked readiness 80 + 0.4×20×exposure 5/5 + 0.2×20×execution 4/5 → High. Our judgment.	High	#33 Gluing chips together copper-to-copper…
Stage 3 · Factories & orders S3 (10-28) → S3 (10-29) → S3 (10-30)	Advantest Added 2026-10-28 ^{[source 14]}	Japan	6857.T	AI chip testing demand	Now-2027	Cyclical; valuation 🐂 vs 🐻 + score 🐂 AI chip testing demand. Cyclical; valuation (judgment) SK hynix: hybrid bonding not ready for HBM4E. source Conviction score 64 = 0.4×linked readiness 80 + 0.4×20×exposure 2/5 + 0.2×20×execution 4/5 → Medium. Our judgment.	Medium	#33 Gluing chips together copper-to-copper…
Stage 3 · Factories & orders S3 (10-28) → S3 (10-29) → S3 (10-30)	Kaynes Technology Added 2026-10-28 ^{[source 8]}	India	KAYNES.NS	OSAT plant in commercial production (ISM)	2026-2027	Small scale; high expectations priced in 🐂 vs 🐻 + score 🐂 OSAT plant in commercial production (ISM). Small scale; high expectations priced in (judgment) System-level review: specialised analog/physical accelerators can show 'little or no advantage' once conversion, control and memory access are counted. source Conviction score 34 = 0.4×linked readiness 35 + 0.4×20×exposure 1/5 + 0.2×20×execution 3/5 → Watch. Our judgment.	Watch	#30 Making noisy analog AI chips accurate …
Stage 3 · Factories & orders S3 (10-28) → S3 (10-29) → S3 (10-30)	CG Power Added 2026-10-28 ^{[source 8]}	India	CGPOWER.NS	Chip packaging JV with Renesas & Stars	2026-2027	Execution; ramp delays 🐂 vs 🐻 + score 🐂 Chip packaging JV with Renesas & Stars. Execution; ramp delays (judgment) SK hynix: hybrid bonding not ready for HBM4E. source Conviction score 52 = 0.4×linked readiness 80 + 0.4×20×exposure 1/5 + 0.2×20×execution 3/5 → Watch. Our judgment.	Watch	#33 Gluing chips together copper-to-copper…
Stage 3 · Factories & orders S3 (10-28) → S3 (10-29) → S3 (10-30)	Adeia Added 2026-10-28	USA	ADEA	Licenses hybrid-bonding IP	2026-2028	Litigation outcomes 🐂 vs 🐻 + score 🐂 Licenses hybrid-bonding IP. Litigation outcomes (judgment) SK hynix: hybrid bonding not ready for HBM4E. source Conviction score 64 = 0.4×linked readiness 80 + 0.4×20×exposure 3/5 + 0.2×20×execution 2/5 → Medium. Our judgment.	Medium	#33 Gluing chips together copper-to-copper…
Stage 3 · Factories & orders S3 (10-28) → S3 (10-29) → S3 (10-30)	STMicroelectronics Added 2026-10-28	Europe	STM	PIC100 photonics in volume	2026-2027	Auto/industrial weakness 🐂 vs 🐻 + score 🐂 PIC100 photonics in volume. Auto/industrial weakness (judgment) Nvidia networking SVP: 'If you can use copper, use copper' — optics only where distance forces it. source Conviction score 66 = 0.4×linked readiness 84 + 0.4×20×exposure 2/5 + 0.2×20×execution 4/5 → High. Our judgment.	High	#38 Silicon photonics reaches high-volume …
Stage 4 · Revenue S4 (10-28) → S4 (10-29) → S4 (10-30)	SK hynix Added 2026-10-28 ^{[source 21]}	Korea	000660.KS	Q3 (Oct 28): revenue ₩104.6T (+328% YoY), DRAM/HBM booked through 2029, long-term deals with 14 customers cover >50% of 2027-28 output	Now-2027	Memory price cycle reversal 🐂 vs 🐻 + score 🐂 Q3 (Oct 28): revenue ₩104.6T (+328% YoY), DRAM/HBM booked through 2029, long-term deals with 14 customers cover >50% of 2027-28 output. Memory price cycle reversal (judgment) SK hynix: hybrid bonding not ready for HBM4E. source Conviction score 80 = 0.4×linked readiness 80 + 0.4×20×exposure 4/5 + 0.2×20×execution 4/5 → High. Our judgment.	High	#33 Gluing chips together copper-to-copper…
Stage 4 · Revenue S4 (10-28) → S4 (10-29) → S4 (10-30)	TSMC Added 2026-10-28 ^{[source 2]}	Taiwan	TSM	2nm steep ramp; Q4 guide $52.3-54.3B	Q4 2026 (Jan 2027 results)	Taiwan risk; overseas fab margin drag 🐂 vs 🐻 + score 🐂 2nm steep ramp; Q4 guide $52.3-54.3B. Taiwan risk; overseas fab margin drag (judgment) Glass timelines keep slipping (Tom's Hardware). source Conviction score 57 = 0.4×linked readiness 52 + 0.4×20×exposure 2/5 + 0.2×20×execution 5/5 → Medium. Our judgment.	Medium	#34 Glass replacing plastic under AI chips…
Stage 4 · Revenue S4 (10-28) → S4 (10-29) → S4 (10-30)	Nvidia Added 2026-10-28 ^{[source 1]}	USA	NVDA	Vera Rubin ramp in full production	Next results ~late Nov 2026 (est.)	Customer capex slowdown; China rules 🐂 vs 🐻 + score 🐂 Vera Rubin ramp in full production. Customer capex slowdown; China rules (judgment) Nvidia networking SVP: 'If you can use copper, use copper' — optics only where distance forces it. source Conviction score 60 = 0.4×linked readiness 60 + 0.4×20×exposure 2/5 + 0.2×20×execution 5/5 → Medium. Our judgment.	Medium	#38 Silicon photonics reaches high-volume … #31 A light switch sending 200 billion bit…
Stage 4 · Revenue S4 (10-28) → S4 (10-29) → S4 (10-30)	AMD Added 2026-10-28 ^{[source 3]}	USA	AMD	Q3 results Nov 3 2026; Q3 revenue guide ~$13.0B	Nov 3 2026	Execution vs Nvidia 🐂 vs 🐻 + score 🐂 Q3 results Nov 3 2026; Q3 revenue guide ~$13.0B. Execution vs Nvidia (judgment) BrainChip, a listed neuromorphic pioneer, reported only US$1.22M revenue and a US$12.0M loss for H1 2026 — commercial demand for brain-like chips is still tiny. source Conviction score 39 = 0.4×linked readiness 28 + 0.4×20×exposure 1/5 + 0.2×20×execution 5/5 → Watch. Our judgment.	Watch	#35 Brain-like chip that can learn on the …

⚠️ Not financial advice. Conviction reflects our editorial view of how strong the research-to-revenue story is, not a buy or sell recommendation. Prices and facts change; do your own research and consult a registered investment adviser.

Opportunities ahead, traced to the lab

🎯 Opportunity cards

STMicroelectronics · Europe

💡 Thesis

📅 Catalysts

⚠️ Risks

✅ Plan

🗓 Timeline

Nvidia · USA

💡 Thesis

📅 Catalysts

⚠️ Risks

✅ Plan

🗓 Timeline

Coherent · USA

💡 Thesis

📅 Catalysts

⚠️ Risks

✅ Plan

🗓 Timeline

Besi · Europe

💡 Thesis

📅 Catalysts

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✅ Plan

🗓 Timeline

Advantest · Japan

💡 Thesis

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🗓 Timeline

CG Power · India

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Adeia · USA

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SK hynix · Korea

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Meta Platforms · USA

💡 Thesis

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IQM Quantum Computers · Finland

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🗓 Timeline

Altera · USA

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📅 Catalysts

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Ceva · USA

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Procure Space ETF · USA

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